What Am I Thinking: Random Thoughts for April 18, 2020

Here are some random thoughts flying across my mind today:

It’s the economy stupid.

I can’t help but fear the long-term negative impact of this experience will be economical. Does this mean I’m more concerned about money than lives? That is a false dichotomy. The truth is poverty can cost as many lives as any virus, and if there are severe economic consequences from this shutdown, many lose their lives due to the effects of poverty.

Small businesses will struggle.

Small businesses will struggle to come back from the shutdown, and the reality is many will never come back. Large corporations, however, have more capital and can survive economic downturns. Look for a Great Consolidation of business as more giant corporations take advantage of the shutdown to buy up innovative small businesses that could not survive.

Uncertainty is the greatest cause of anxiety right now.

No one knows the future, but history gives us a glimpse of the future. I believe history is cyclical in nature because history is rooted in human nature, and human nature is essentially the same regardless of the time or place. When we enter into unprecedented times like this, there is no history or prior events to use as a gauge for how things will turn out. No one is an expert because no one has ever experienced this right now. Consequently, the future seems more unpredictable now than at any other time in my life. I feel like we are staring at a brick wall and no one knows what is on the other side of the brick wall. We have lost all sense of space and time. We don’t know if this coronavirus pandemic will be a blip on the horizon two years from now or if we will look back at March and April of 2020 and think, “those were the good days.” No one knows.

“This is not a shutdown, but a tactical retreat.”

I listened to an episode of The Joe Rogan Podcast with Dan Crenshaw as the guest. When Rogan asked Crenshaw for his take on this current time, he said it reminds him of a tactical retreat. To put it in military terms, it’s what happens when a patrol runs into a barrage of gunfire. No one knows where it is coming from or what is going on, the only instinct is to retreat to a safer place where you can assess the situation and what the enemy is doing and then develop a plan to go back on the offensive against the enemy. That is what we are doing right now. The coronavirus hit us like a barrage of gunfire that pushed us into a tactical retreat. We had to assess what the danger was and the severity of the problem and then begin developing a plan of attack. The first stage was to build up our medical resources then prepare to go on the offensive. When we reopen the country, that is going on offense. Yes, there will be casualties, but wars are not one sitting on defense. It’s time for America to go on the offense against the coronavirus.

What will the church look like after coronavirus?

This is a topic of some debate among the consultant class within the church. Almost in unison, they are warning that the coronavirus shutdown will prove to be a paradigm-changing experience for the church. They are predicting a great increase in the number of bi-vocational and co-vocational pastors as churches struggle financially. They argue that large churches with expansive facilities could find the new paradigm does not depend on facilities, and they will need to repurpose their buildings. They predict newer churches looking to build facilities will struggle to find financing, and the need for facilities will diminish. What do I think? Not sure yet. There is part of me that is skeptical (see thoughts on uncertain future above). I don’t doubt this will have a long-term impact on the church, but I think it is too early to tell if it is genuinely a paradigm-changing impact. I do believe for churches looking to make large-scale changes, this is an opportunity, but that is a topic for more discussion.

The news media in America truly is “the enemy of the people.”

One of the uglier aspects of America this pandemic has revealed is just how arrogant and agenda-driven the activist media is in America. Here is my conclusion, like it or not: the activist media hate America, and they hate you and me. They have moved well beyond bias to serving as the propaganda ministry for those who hate America. If the activist media was a casualty of the pandemic, that would be one of the bright spots to emerge from this challenging time.

Like it or not, the Democrat Party has become the Democrat Socialist Party of America.

Back to the interview with Dan Crenshaw on The Joe Rogan Podcast, I think he nailed it in his description of the Democrat Party in 2020. The Democrats no longer represent the working people of America. They have become a party governed by progressive elites who are driven more by ideology than what is best for working men and women. How did the Democrat Party become a socialist party? It is the result of young people who have been indoctrinated with the values and morals of Marxism and who express their opinions with a lot of emotion and anger. I thought it was interesting what Crenshaw said about Nancy Pelosi. He said 10 years ago, Republicans viewed Pelosi as an extremist in her political positions; today, they view her as a moderate, center-left politician. She is trying to navigate between what many older Democrats see as “common sense liberalism” and the new socialist wing of their party. Again, what has changed? Older Democrats talked a lot about their socialist ideas to woo the younger voters, but they governed from the center. As the Millennials grew into their 30s and started achieving positions of power, the older Democrats realized too late that unlike their generation that could talk the talk but walk a different direction, the Millennials are true believers.

And then there’s China.

For the life of me, I do not understand why the left is so enamored with China. I get that they are a yuuuuge market (use your Bernie Sanders voice), and everyone from Apple to the NBA wants a piece of it, but why are so many willing to unashamedly carry water for China? Again, one of the long-term positive impacts from this shutdown could be a wholesale re-evaluation of our relationship with China. Some have suggested this is the start of a new, much more intense Cold War with China. As one commentator put it, we have discovered that we are at war with China, but China manufactures all of our ammunition. Hopefully, we will see a foundational re-evaluation of every aspect of our China relationship, but Americans need to be ready for what that means to their lifestyle. We all enjoy relatively cheap consumer goods, from 65-inch televisions that cost less than $1000 to everyday household items. It’s all made in China. That same television that’s made in China and sold for less than $1000 would cost three times that amount if it was made in America. It has taken us 20-plus years to entangle ourselves in this mess, and it won’t be easy to detangle the mess, but we need to start the process. If we have learned nothing else from this experience, China is not a good neighbor in the global community.

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The Church After Coronavirus

I just participated in a webinar by The Unstuck Group on the Church’s Response to Coronavirus. I found the information helpful as we consider the future. Tony Morgan expressed a lot of opinions during this webinar, and I am not sure where I land on some of these issues, but it is certainly worth having the conversation.

BTW - I have participated in a few other webinars on this topic, and Tony is not alone in his conclusion that the coronavirus interruption is a seismic paradigm shift for the church, and we will never return to a pre-coronavirus normal.

Blessings,

Chris Eller

The Church's Response to Coronavirus - Webinar Series

"March was a really long year.”

Four Take-aways for Churches:

  1. Expect to see a significant decrease in in-person attendance for the foreseeable future (mid-2021 or even 2022).
  2. Engagement is the new metric that matters more than attendance.
  3. A Church needs to have a greater local presence in the community where God has placed a church. A community needs to see the church in action.
  4. For churches, the economic recovery will take much longer than other sectors of the economy because for most giving is a discretionary item.

Tony Morgan - it will be a long time before in-person attendance returns to pre-coronavirus normal, and many churches will not see that return. There will be many churches that will not recover or survive the shutdown.

Most churches found their identity in their weekend services. This will need to change. Eighty percent of their focus was on their weekend services. This includes finances, staffing, and how we deploy our volunteers.

Moving forward, the church needs to focus their attention now on Organizational Strategies. The foundational values do not change, but strategies do change. Churches make a huge mistake when they begin to associate Organizational Strategies with Foundational Values.

—> The #1 reason churches get stuck is because churches have made their Organizational Strategies their Foundational Values.

The main strategies the church has employed and developed over the last 30 years will no longer work going forward.

Two types of pastors and church leaders right now:

  • Pastor 1: "When will we get back to normal? When we will be able to return to our normal weekend services and ministries?" These pastors will likely not survive.
  • Pastor 2: "How does this disruption need to change our strategy going forward."

Seven Shifts Churches Need to Make Because of the Coronavirus:

https://tonymorganlive.com/2020/04/15/7-church-shifts-coronavirus/

  1. The shift from analog to digital. Think beyond just online services on Sunday morning. How do we make the shift to where our ministries are online.
  2. The shift from teaching to equipping. This means equipping people with the necessary tools to take next steps to engage with the Word of God through spiritual disciplines and to live out the mission God has given them.
  3. The shift from gathering to connect. Too many churches worked hard to keep people busy at events, activities, etc., with little effort to build community and connect
  4. The shift from a global perspective to a local perspective. Churches have focused their mission emphasis and spending on global missions at the expense of their local community. It is easier to send money overseas or go on a short-term trip than to engage our neighbors in gospel conversations.
  5. The shift from being complex to simple. Churches were struggling to do everything for everyone. The churches with a focused strategy will be effective.
  6. The shift from being bloated financially to more frugal. The key area where this needs to happen is with staffing. Most churches will need a different kind of staff with different skills than prior to the interruptions. Over the last 10 years, churches in decline had 35% more staff than healthy churches.
  7. The shift from measuring attendees (even viewers) to measuring engagement. Churches need to know who is engaging with their ministry. Requires different metrics.


We need to prioritize our digital strategy. For many churches, this will require an investment. This will be difficult because funds will be limited. Need to be creative and prioritize. This requires a strategy. Need to rethink Operational Strategies in order to accomplish the Foundational Values in a new environment.

We will be doing ministry with less money for the foreseeable future.

One metric they are watching is a correlation between churches who are being visibly generous within their community and at the same time are seeing an increase in giving to these churches.

Discipleship needs to move beyond the classroom and equip people how to engage with God’s word through personal spiritual disciplines. (Spiritual Formation strategies)

Churches need to rethink their facilities. It is very likely churches will not need the facilities they are currently using. A church’s website is its new facility. Facilities have been designed, essentially, for gathering. If in-person gathering is not a priority or option for a long time, how can a church use its facilities in a visible way to minister to the community?

Church leadership needs to get younger. If older leaders can’t engage digitally and be comfortable doing so, they need to step aside to give room for younger leaders who are digital natives.

Based on Unstuck Group’s research, 80 percent of American Churches were in plateau or decline. This interruptions will accelerate that trend.

There is a large disconnect between Digital engagement and giving. Most people today expect digital content and services to be free or low cost. Example, most streaming services (Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc.) are $15 per month or less for almost unlimited content. This will require churches to make sure their strategies reflect their values and demonstrate they are effectively accomplishing their mission in the new environment. In this regard, nothing has changed: people give to vision. For too long, however, “the vision” of the church has emphasized tangible assets (buildings, renovations, staff, etc.) rather than a gospel-centered mission. This was often interpreted in the past as “we accomplish our gospel-centered mission by building buildings, hiring staff, etc.”

You need to rethink your connection process for people who connect with you digitally for the first time. One idea: offer a post service zoom gathering for new people to meet the pastor and to learn about next steps with the church.

Phone calls are more important than ever.

NOTE: Some people may not understand how to get your stream on a device like Roku, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, etc. Explain how to get services on these devices so they can participate as a family in a group watching a television vs trying to do so with a computer or tablet.

There is a weak link in the churches to the digital approach right now, and that is in the ministry to Children. Churches need to change their children’s ministry focus from ministry to children to equipping parents in how to disciple and equip their children.

Again, schools are a good barometer for a community’s response to this virus.

College presidents yesterday: if we are not having on-campus school, we will not have football.

What metrics are the best to measure engagement: start monitoring new guests (figure out how to get contact info). This is the crucial first metric. Next: what are the steps people are taking in your strategy? Giving is an easy metric that many are already doing that gives a great measure of where people are at spiritually.

Is there a new staff role for this new reality? Yes. Digital Strategies.

The season of larger and larger facilities is over. There will not be a need, and churches will not have the finances (even access to loans) to build large facilities.

What is essential to the church moving forward: It is a church's Foundational Values. If these are not at the core of your thinking, you will quickly get off track and off mission.

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Time To Rethink Church

by Chris Eller, Associate Executive Director, Baptist Convention of Iowa

The mission of your church is bigger than a 75-minute weekly service.

It seems like almost hourly, more and more of what we consider "normal life" is being shut down. As we all grapple with the new reality of this time, let me challenge you to rethink church as you contemplate what the next few weeks could look like. There is so much more to being a church than merely getting your service online.

One of the challenges we may face in the post-Coronavirus world is a realization by many people that what they supposedly valued pre-Coronavirus is really not as valuable after all. Let me give you some examples:

How will this impact higher education? Colleges and universities across the country are demonstrating how students can get their education online without having to live on or near a college campus. Why pay thousands of dollars for a dorm room and food when you can earn the same degree by living at home and taking the classes online? This was a growing trend before Coronavirus, and this experience will only accelerate that trend.

How will this impact work environments? Why do so many people need to commute to an office building every day and spend hours in a work environment when this experience has proven employees can work remotely and still get work done?

Now think about the church. How will remote worship impact the church? If all your church is about is a 75-minute service on Sundays and folks can participate in that at home when it is convenient for them, don't you think some will look at that Sunday commitment and think, "why not continue with the remote worship?"

My purpose is not to question the value of live streaming, but to challenge you to think again if that's all you are considering in response to this crisis.

If at the end of this experience all you have done is broadcast your services, won't that cause folks to question the value of their church experience?

Anyone who has spent four or more years on a college campus knows that those years are about a lot more than going to class, it is a formative life experience.

Anyone who goes to work knows that living and doing life with coworkers can be a meaningful and significant part of one's life.

The church is more than just a few worship songs and a sermon; it is about the community and the relationships that form as we carry out the Great Commission and do life together.

How can you help your congregation stay connected relationally? That should be the focus of more conversation than trying to figure out how to get your service out there.

What do you think? How are you working to keep your congregation engaged with each other in community and be a gospel influence within your community?

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Coronavirus: Should We Cancel Church This Sunday?

Several churches are discussing the recent flood of cancellations, suspensions, and closings due to the Coronavirus and asking themselves, “should we consider canceling services this Sunday?”

This is a good question to ask, and worthy of discussion among your churches leadership.

I have read several articles and listened to some podcasts on the issue, and here are some thoughts to consider as you weigh your options:

  • The United States is at the early stages of the virus spreading, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better. Consider the spread of the virus as a bell curve—the US is on the left side of the bell curve, and cases of influenza will likely grow exponentially before the spread begins to decline.
  • When weighing your decision whether or not to cancel services, think through the ramifications of point one. If you cancel this weekend, it is impossible to gauge when you can resume services. Again, with the expectation that things will get worse before they get better, once you suspend services, it may be weeks before you can offer worship services again. Don’t make the mistake of assuming you will cancel this weekend or next weekend and then resume services. While the virus is spreading, you will be just as much at risk this weekend as you will be in four weeks or six weeks or until the virus is no longer a threat.
  • Children are considered super-conductors for the spread of a virus for obvious reasons. Children’s ministry areas can be some of the most challenging areas to control a virus. You can take extra precautions, but when considering areas of ministry to suspend first, your children’s ministry should be at the top of the list.
  • Public bathrooms are next on the list of places where viruses thrive and spread. Experts warn against using public restrooms unless absolutely necessary, and to be extra cautious about washing your hands after using a public restroom.
  • Reconsider parts of your service that require individual interaction. This could include the customary “shake your neighbor’s hand” at the start of the service, but also things like communion. If you are compelled to offer communion during this season, consider using individually sealed servings of bread and juice.
  • Currently, most cancellations and suspensions are voluntary, but if the virus spreads as predicted, likely, government authorities will either strongly recommend the suspension of any public gathering or, in the worst case, ban public meetings. In California right now, the governor is urging the cancellation of any event with more than 250 in attendance, and many California counties are warning people to avoid any indoor gathering with more than 50 people.
  • The CDC is advising seniors 60-years and older to avoid crowds and indoor gatherings.

There is a public frenzy of cancellations right now as organizations large and small wrestle with how to handle Coronavirus. Here is perhaps the best advice I have heard: don’t assume you can cancel services this weekend and then resume a regular schedule next week. Once you cancel, you need to prepare to shut down all public gatherings of your church (not just Sunday services) until the government gives the all-clear. This could be weeks.

Also, it is important to remember that “a little bit of precaution” does little to prevent the spread of the disease. Experts warn that there will be a rush of precautions in the next week, but quickly people will tire of all the extra steps needed to slow the spread of the virus and resume their regular habits.

There is a good chance that if the virus spreads as anticipated, churches will have no choice but to suspend public gatherings until the all-clear is given. As a leadership team, you need to have contingency plans in place if your church is forced to suspend public gatherings for an extended period of time. What will force your hand? When someone in your church becomes a confirmed case or if the virus spreads to the point local authorities strongly recommend or even ban the cancellation of public gatherings.

Where can I get more information or stay informed?

The most reliable source of credible information is the Centers for Disease Control (www.cdc.gov). Here is the specific web page with information on Coronavirus: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html

At the state level, the Iowa Department of Public Health is providing up-to-date information on the spread of the virus within Iowa. You will find this information here: https://idph.iowa.gov/Emerging-Health-Issues/Novel-Coronavirus

For churches specifically, LifeWay has created a training resource to help churches with many of the questions and concerns unique to local church ministry. The resource is available free of charge via LifeWay’s MinistryGrid application available here: https://ministrygrid.com/coronavirus

Look for ministry opportunities

A church is much more than its public gatherings. There are opportunities for the church to minister to the community in a multitude of ways. This is a good time as a church to look for areas of obvious need within your community and see how you can help people who are struggling either with the illness or because of the suspension and cancellation of services.

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