# Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse  ## Become a Member at TuckerCarlson.com [(00:00:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=0s) - A new six-part documentary series titled "All the President's Men" by documentary filmmaker Shawn Stone is being rolled out, which provides an in-depth look at the Trump Administration from 2016 to 2020 [(00:00:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1s). - The documentary series explores how the Deep State, particularly the [[Intel]] agencies and law enforcement agencies under the indirect command of [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[Barack Obama]], attempted to systematically destroy the lives of people who supported [[Donald Trump]] [(00:00:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=19s). - The series features interviews with the people who were targeted and presents the information in a way that will challenge the viewer's understanding of [[United States | American]] democracy [(00:00:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=34s). - The documentary series "All the President's Men" will debut on October 21st, with six episodes released every Monday [(00:00:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=43s). - The series will be available exclusively on TCN, and viewers can access it by visiting [[Tucker Carlson | TuckerCarlson.com]] [(00:00:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=47s). ## The State of the Presidential Race [(00:01:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=83s) - The current state of the presidential race is close, but it's possible that one candidate could win easily, with the variables pointing towards Trump winning, barring four exceptions that the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] are relying on [(00:01:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=97s). - The four exceptions are: abortion, the gender gap, the Democratic candidate's ground game, and the idea that Trump has a ceiling due to "Trump fatigue" or other factors [(00:01:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=108s). - Abortion is an emotional issue that may be bigger than currently measured, but it's not showing up in public polls, and Trump is trying to neutralize it because he sees its electoral power [(00:02:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=126s). - The gender gap is a significant factor, as women vote more than men and many don't like Trump, which could power a victory for the Democratic candidate [(00:03:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=187s). - The Democratic candidate's ground game is strong, with a campaign chair who grew up as a field person, and they have more money than Trump, which could be worth three points if the election is close [(00:03:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=216s). - Trump's ceiling is due to the idea that he can't get above 47% of the vote due to "Trump fatigue" or other factors, which could put some voters off limits to him [(00:03:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=238s). - The [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate may be able to get to 48 or 49% of the vote in a two-person race, while Trump can't, which gives Democrats hope that they can win [(00:04:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=253s). - [[Republican Party (United States) | Republicans]] are confident that they will take the House, [[United States Senate | Senate]], and [[White House]], while Democrats are worried or "freaking out" about their candidate's conduct and capabilities [(00:04:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=278s). - Some Democrats are questioning their decision to dump [[Joe Biden]] for a candidate who has some advantages but also many of the same problems [(00:04:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=294s). - The Democratic Party may be taking a risk by choosing their current candidate, and this risk may not pay off for them, as they are recognizing additional problems of their own [(00:04:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=296s). - Evaluating the presidential race involves looking at various polls and data from both sides, including those from smart people with predictive success over time [(00:05:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=312s). - The reality of the race is that it may be back to where the Democratic Party was when Biden was the nominee before the debate, with only one [[Electoral college | Electoral College]] path to win [(00:05:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=320s). - This path involves winning the three [[Great Lakes | Great Lake]] states and the [[Nebraska]] congressional district, which is a narrow margin but not impossible [(00:05:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=340s). - The current candidate may be weaker in the Great Lake States than Biden and may not be able to win the four [[Sun Belt]] Battlegrounds, making her situation similar to Biden's before the debate [(00:06:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=364s). - Private data suggests that the races are close, with Trump consistently having a two-point to four-point lead, which is a cause for concern for the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] Party [(00:06:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=377s). - The consistency of Trump's lead in both parties' data over the last couple of weeks has made the Democratic Party worried that their candidate simply hasn't done enough to win [(00:06:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=391s). ## Does Kamala Harris Stand For Anything? [(00:06:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=397s) - The undecided voters do not understand what the Democratic candidate stands for, and she has not explained her policies clearly, which some people find insulting [(00:06:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=401s). - Despite knowing her for a long time and covering her, it is unclear what she stands for, what she would do as president, and what she believes in [(00:06:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=417s). - In contrast, even Trump's enemies know what he stands for and what he would do in a second term, although his problem is his personality [(00:07:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=425s). - Many people in the electorate do not want either Trump or [[Joe Biden | Biden]] and are looking for a third choice, but this option is not available [(00:07:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=444s). - The [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate has recently shifted her message to emphasize that the country cannot go back to someone as unstable and unattractive as Trump in terms of personality [(00:08:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=480s). - Changing one's personality is hard, but coming up with a platform is not, and it is unclear why the Democratic candidate has not done so [(00:08:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=494s). - The Democratic candidate's great weakness is that she is indecisive and does not like to make hard decisions, which makes it difficult for her to come up with policy choices [(00:08:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=535s). - Unlike previous presidents, such as [[Bill Clinton]], who put policy proposals at the center of their campaigns, the Democratic candidate has not done so, and it is unclear if she believes her party is out of step with the country on any issues [(00:09:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=554s). - The Democratic candidate's support for certain policies, such as government-funded operations for illegal immigrants who want to change their sexual identity, is not in line with strong public support and is unlike the positions taken by previous Democratic presidents [(00:10:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=601s). - The Democratic candidate's platform is subject to criticism from both the left and the center, regardless of the positions she takes, which may be a reason for her reluctance to take clear stances [(00:10:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=621s). - Even within the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] party, some issues, such as paying for sex changes for legal aliens, may not be widely popular but are supported by the loudest and most influential part of the party [(00:10:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=653s). - To get elected, it would be effective for the candidate to denounce unpopular and extreme positions within her party, but this may be challenging for her due to her indecisiveness [(00:11:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=672s). - The candidate's career has not been marked by a multitude of original policy ideas, and she has been known to adopt ideas from others, including Trump, which may be seen as a strategic move [(00:11:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=704s). - The candidate's reluctance to take clear stances may be partly due to her aversion to being criticized from both the left and the right, and her complex position within the party [(00:12:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=727s). - The candidate's relationship with the sitting president, who is "in the shadows behind her," may also contribute to her complex position and decision-making [(00:12:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=739s). ## What Is Harris’s Relationship Like With Joe Biden? [(00:12:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=743s) - The relationship between [[Kamala Harris]] and [[Joe Biden]] has become somewhat strained lately, but it's not believed to be due to any intentional actions by Biden to hurt Harris' chances [(00:12:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=745s). - Biden is thought to want Harris to win, and has privately told her and her team that she should do what she needs to do to succeed, without him disrespecting her in the process [(00:12:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=761s). - Biden's mental decline has been noticeable since 2017, with some people who knew him before noticing a significant change in his cognitive abilities [(00:12:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=768s). - Those who knew Biden before his decline liked him for his fun and large personality, but it's now obvious that he's not as sharp as he used to be [(00:13:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=786s). - The staff around Biden is trying to be deferential to him, but there have been instances where they seem to be dropping the ball, such as when he appeared in the briefing room at the same time as Harris was starting an event [(00:13:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=816s). - It's believed that these mistakes are not due to passive-aggression, but rather due to the difficulty of coordinating between different entities and Biden's own limitations [(00:14:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=849s). - Despite the challenges, it's thought that [[Joe Biden | Biden]] wants [[Kamala Harris | Harris]] to win and is not intentionally trying to hurt her chances, with the staff determined to avoid making similar mistakes in the future [(00:14:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=871s). ## Harris Can’t Answer This Simple Question [(00:14:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=874s) - The toughest question for Kamala Harris is how she will be different from Joe Biden, and she has not provided a clear answer to this question [(00:14:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=874s). - There are three reasons why Harris struggles to answer this question: she does not want to appear disloyal to Biden, taking different positions from him involves risk, and she is not good at delivering sound bites or complicated messages [(00:14:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=890s). - Harris's main problem is that she does not like to take risks, which is evident in her inability to provide a clear answer to this question [(00:15:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=915s). - Harris's performance in interviews has been underwhelming, with none of her interviews leaving a lasting impression on people, making them think she should be the president [(00:15:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=939s). - Harris's inability to answer hard questions effectively is a testament to her struggles with this aspect of being a presidential candidate [(00:15:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=953s). ## What Do Harris’s Donors Think? [(00:16:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=961s) - Donors who supported [[Kamala Harris]] are divided in their opinions, with about 80% focusing on the upcoming election and the need to defeat [[Donald Trump]], while 20% express regret over replacing [[Joe Biden]] with Harris, who they believe could also lose to Trump [(00:16:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=970s). - The 20% of donors who are critical of the decision to replace Biden with Harris believe that Harris is the only other Democrat who could lose to Trump, aside from Biden, and that other [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] would have struggled just as much or more in the election [(00:16:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=983s). - Despite their concerns, the donors are putting their heads down and trying to win the election, with the pollsters and public polls suggesting that Harris can still win, but there will be soul-searching about how they placed her in this role without the benefits of beating Trump [(00:16:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1012s). - The decision to replace Biden with Harris was reportedly predicted by some, but the exact reason behind the prediction is not specified in the conversation [(00:17:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1031s). - The conversation also touches on the Biden-Harris record and how it may burden Harris in the election, but notes that other Democrats may have struggled just as much or more [(00:16:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1004s). ## Mark Halperin’s Reporting That Biden Would Give up the Nomination [(00:17:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1046s) - [[Joe Biden]] initially believed [[Kamala Harris]] would become the nominee and could not beat [[Donald Trump]], and he also thought other potential candidates like [[Gavin Newsom]] or [[Gretchen Whitmer]] could not win against Trump either [(00:17:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1065s). - Biden wanted Harris to meet with foreign leaders to prepare her for a potential presidency, but despite this, her approval ratings were low, and her operation was plagued by leaking [(00:18:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1086s). - Many people around Biden did not think Harris could beat Trump, and some even said Biden would have to step down due to his age and low support among [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] [(00:18:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1111s). - The decision for Biden to choose Harris as his running mate was influenced by a vetting process that started well before he officially announced his candidacy [(00:19:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1142s). - Harris began maneuvering for the nomination before Biden officially announced he would not run, including vetting potential running mates, which is a process that usually takes months [(00:19:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1162s). - A tip about the vetting of vice presidential prospects by Harris was the starting point for reporting on the story of Biden's decision to choose her as his running mate [(00:19:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1142s). - There was a period of at least a week where a small circle of people believed [[Donald Trump]] was strongly considering getting out of the presidential election, but this was delayed due to him getting [[COVID-19]] [(00:21:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1274s). - [[Nancy Pelosi]] was determined to get Trump out and saw that others, including [[Hakeem Jeffries]] and [[Chuck Schumer]], were not doing enough, so she took matters into her own hands [(00:21:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1310s). - Pelosi did not want [[Kamala Harris]] to run and instead wanted [[Josh Shapiro]] to run for governor of [[Pennsylvania]], intending for there to be a two-step process [(00:22:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1321s). - There were discussions about a two-step process to stop Kamala Harris, with some people, including [[James Carville]], publicly talking about it [(00:22:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1351s). - One proposal was for Obama and [[Bill Clinton]] to pick six people to run for the nomination, with the delegates voting, but this did not rule out Kamala Harris [(00:22:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1365s). - The assumption was that the Biden-Harris delegates would not vote for someone else in a competitive contest, giving Harris a significant advantage [(00:23:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1394s). - The clock was ticking, and with limited time, it was difficult for others to run against Harris, who had the advantages of being the incumbent vice president, a black woman of color, and having campaign money that could only transfer to her [(00:23:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1416s). - None of the other potential candidates, including [[Gretchen Whitmer]], wanted to run against Harris [(00:23:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1436s). - The people who were talked about as potential candidates were not in the same league as [[John Edwards]], [[Barack Obama]], or [[George W. Bush]] in terms of their ambition to be president [(00:24:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1444s). - Many potential [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidates are ambivalent about running for president, especially against an incumbent vice president, and may not take the opportunity if offered, due to the significant life changes and downsides that come with the role [(00:24:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1461s). - These politicians are relatively young, have younger kids, and recognize the negative impact the presidency can have on their personal lives, making the decision to run a non-starter for some [(00:24:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1490s). - The current political climate, with constant social media attacks, also deters potential candidates, and none of the current candidates have [[National security | National Security]] experience, making the job even more daunting [(00:25:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1530s). - The idea of [[Bill Clinton]] and Barack Obama picking the Democratic nominee is unrealistic, as it would be seen as an oligarchy, and it's unlikely they would choose [[Bernie Sanders]], who might win but has been a problem for the party in the past [(00:26:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1561s). - The nomination process is complex, and candidates must navigate the rules of the game to succeed, as seen in the case of the current vice president, who earned the nomination by understanding and working within the system [(00:26:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1567s). - The decision to report on a candidate's withdrawal or endorsement plans can be risky, but if the information is accurate, it's not a tough call to make, as seen in the case of a report on a candidate's decision not to endorse the vice president [(00:26:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1613s). - The report on the candidate's decision not to endorse the vice president was met with backlash from women close to the vice president and some women in [[United States Congress | Congress]], who felt it would look bad for the candidate not to endorse [(00:27:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1647s). - [[Mark Halperin]] reports that a politician changed his mind on Sunday and decided to endorse a nominee, while others did not want to create the impression of an elite selection [(00:27:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1658s). - The media initially supported the politician but later stopped and started attacking him, which was seen as a significant event [(00:27:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1675s). - [[Joe Biden]] was resolute in public and private about his decision, but it seemed to change suddenly, which is a normal occurrence in politics [(00:28:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1689s). - Mark Halperin expresses frustration with the political media culture for covering up major issues for seven years [(00:28:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1708s). - Mark Halperin has been in the business since 1987 and is approaching 40 years of experience [(00:28:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1718s). ## The Worst Scandal in American Journalism [(00:28:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1725s) - The current scandal in [[United States | American]] journalism is considered the worst in history due to the cover-up of President Biden's decline, despite the public being aware of the situation, and the press's involvement in it [(00:28:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1727s). - The cover-up continued even after [[Joe Biden | Biden]] spoke to a deceased congresswoman, with his press secretary claiming he did so because she was "top of mind" due to an upcoming meeting with her family, which is seen as a loss of acuity that would disqualify him from holding public office [(00:29:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1742s). - The motivation behind the cover-up is believed to be a desire to prevent [[Donald Trump]] from winning, as well as affection for Biden and bullying of his staff [(00:29:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1778s). - When it became clear that Biden was a threat to the [[Republic]] and could lose to Trump, the press turned against him, but never acknowledged their role in the seven-year-long cover-up [(00:29:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1788s). - The same people who covered up Biden's decline are now covering the new candidate and Trump, which is seen as staggering and hypocritical [(00:30:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1802s). - Unlike after the "weapons of mass destruction" scandal and the Mueller investigation, there has been no soul-searching or acknowledgement from the press about their role in the cover-up of Biden's decline [(00:30:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1811s). - The press had previously written stories about Trump's misstatements and Biden's good and bad days, but failed to acknowledge that Biden's decline made him unfit for the presidency [(00:30:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1831s). - The press's sudden pivot against [[Joe Biden | Biden]], after propping him up for seven years, is seen as incredible and hypocritical [(00:30:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1855s). ## Was the Biden/Trump Debate a Setup? [(00:31:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1869s) - Observing the US from abroad during a significant event made it seem like a setup, with many people saying the same thing at the same moment, suggesting a shared orientation and reaction to bullying rather than a conspiracy [(00:31:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1879s). - [[White House]] reporters from major news organizations privately acknowledged President Biden's substantial cognitive decline, but it was impermissible to report in their newsrooms [(00:31:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1917s). - Except for outlets like [[Newsmax]] and Fox, no one reported on Biden's cognitive decline, and it's unclear how journalists will reflect on their failure to report this [(00:32:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1928s). - Having been at the center of the political news business for many decades, it's surprising that journalists didn't report on Biden's cognitive decline, and those who offer explanations often blame their bosses and editors [(00:32:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1952s). - The failure to acknowledge Biden's cognitive decline is seen as a significant failure, and some journalists blame their editors and executive producers for not allowing them to report on it [(00:33:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=1999s). - This failure to report on Biden's cognitive decline has helped Trump, as the [[United States | American]] people, including [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]], saw what was happening and were ahead of the media on this issue [(00:33:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2015s). - The White House's response to clips of Biden's cognitive decline, calling them selectively edited, was not convincing, and the decline is obvious to everyone who covers politics in Washington [(00:33:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2039s). - There is a lack of accountability among journalists and the people around the president, who still claim that he didn't fail or decide not to run, despite evidence to the contrary [(00:34:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2081s). - The loss of mental acuity of a certain individual made it unlikely for them to beat Trump, which led to the continuation of a narrative that they didn't think they could win or would divide the Democratic party [(00:34:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2086s). - The story of how people protected this individual has been partially exposed, with some foreign leaders anonymously stating that they had problems, and a [[The Wall Street Journal | Wall Street Journal]] piece discussing the issue, although it was considered watered down [(00:34:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2096s). - Many Democratic members of [[United States Congress | Congress]] knew about the individual's problems, but the Wall Street Journal piece was one of the few to make the point that people were talking about their senility [(00:35:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2120s). - The piece was considered dishonest and helped the individual, but hurt the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] party, as history will show that replacing them sooner with anyone, including [[Kamala Harris | Harris]], would have given them a better chance [(00:35:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2155s). - Harris has not been asked about her connection to the cover-up, and it is unclear what her role was in it, although it is unlikely that she was heavily involved [(00:36:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2174s). - The individual had good and bad days, and good and bad hours, and it is likely that Harris saw them at their best most of the time, but also saw them when they were not well [(00:36:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2198s). - The cover-up of the individual's problems is reminiscent of the [[White House press corps | White House Press Corp]] covering up FDR's disability during the 1930s, but is more frightening due to the presence of alternative media and social media [(00:37:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2220s). - The lack of reporting on the individual's problems is a big media scandal, and it is frightening that it could happen in a society with so many different media outlets and sources of information [(00:37:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2263s). - The incident highlights the lack of accountability in the media and government, and the willingness to engage in a cover-up, which is a concerning trend in the age of transparency [(00:37:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2275s). - A debate is referenced, with some [[Republican Party (United States) | Republicans]] believing it was a setup to force a particular candidate out, but this claim is not believed to be true based on available information [(00:38:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2312s). - The candidate in question was on track to lose before the debate, with no intervening event that could have turned things around, and had only one path to win, which was to win the three [[Great Lakes | Great Lake]] States, [[Nebraska]] 2 CD, but was behind in [[Pennsylvania]] [(00:38:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2326s). - There appears to be pressure not to report data that shows a [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate or president is behind, with this pressure seemingly affecting the reporting of certain stories [(00:39:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2345s). - The candidate in question was in trouble in several states, including [[New Mexico]], [[Virginia]], and [[Minnesota]], before the debate, and had only one [[Electoral college | Electoral College]] path to victory [(00:39:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2368s). - The journalist's past prediction that Trump had a good shot at winning the 2016 election is referenced, which was made after covering Trump rallies in 30 states and talking to voters across the country [(00:40:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2407s). - The journalist was attacked and denounced for predicting Trump's potential win in 2016, despite ultimately being correct [(00:40:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2415s). ## Covering the Trump Campaign [(00:40:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2417s) - Covering Trump is challenging due to his tendency to say untrue things, break norms, and not play by traditional rules of decorum, but also because the press often covers him unfairly, with unequal and hostile treatment [(00:40:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2417s). - Despite the challenges, it's essential to analyze poll numbers and appreciate the legitimate concerns of people who liked Trump in 2015 and 2016, such as feeling that Washington doesn't stand up for them, there's too much government regulation, and no plan to deal with [[China]] [(00:41:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2481s). - Trump addressed serious issues, like securing the border, in a way that resonated with many [[Arab Americans | Americans]], even if he often presented them in a cartoonish manner [(00:41:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2500s). - Trump's ability to tap into the aspirational worries of the [[United States | American]] people, which other politicians weren't addressing, was a key factor in his appeal [(00:41:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2512s). - [[Kamala Harris]] has only clearly defined one policy objective, which is a more extreme pro-abortion stance, allowing abortion anywhere, anytime, for any reason, up to the 9th month [(00:42:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2537s). - The modern [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] Party supports this extreme abortion stance, resulting in thousands of babies dying every day, which is why organizations like Preborn are working to provide counseling, care, and resources to pregnant women in need [(00:42:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2565s). - Preborn has rescued over 300,000 children and offers up to 2 years of aftercare, changing hearts and minds through their approach, which includes using ultrasound to help women make informed decisions [(00:43:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2585s). - For just $28, the cost of a cheap dinner, one ultrasound can be sponsored, and for $140, five ultrasounds can be sponsored, making it possible for individuals to support Preborn's mission [(00:43:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2603s). - Abortion should not be the basis of an entire political party, and even those who are pro-choice should find this extreme stance disgusting [(00:43:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2621s). - To support Preborn's mission, individuals can donate securely by visiting their website or calling a specific number and using the keyword "baby" [(00:43:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2629s). - The 2016 response to Trump was interesting because it required people to deny observable realities, rather than being a partisan issue, and this demand for denial is a different thing [(00:44:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2655s). - There is great empathy for people who support Trump and are angry at the establishment media, universities, and liberal cultural institutions that are hostile to them, and also for those with "[[Trump derangement syndrome]]" who think Trump's presidency is the worst thing that could happen to America [(00:44:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2667s). - The core challenge for the country is for people to try to understand both groups, and there are not many people, including journalists, who have empathy and understanding for both groups [(00:45:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2722s). - The reason for having empathy for Trump voters is due to three factors: covering Bill Clinton's presidential campaign and listening to people unhappy with the status quo, understanding the importance of getting out of Washington and [[New York City | New York]] to watch presidential candidates talk to voters, and seeing the mood of the country and how some candidates like [[Bill Clinton | Clinton]], Trump, and [[Ronald Reagan | Reagan]] addressed the needs of the people [(00:45:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2753s). - The experience of covering Bill Clinton's campaign and traveling to 46 states with him helped to understand the long-term dislocation and economic pain faced by many people, and the concerns they had about their place in the world and their economic future [(00:45:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2758s). - The ability to see liberal media bias, even early in a career, and the importance of questioning whether news products and analysis appeal to the entire country, not just a specific group, is also a factor in having empathy for Trump voters [(00:47:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2822s). - The need to be honest as a journalist and constantly question assumptions, rather than just following the mentality of a specific group, is also a key factor in having empathy for Trump voters [(00:47:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2856s). - The gaming industry, specifically casinos, sports betting, and gambling, is a huge business that is barely covered by the media and lacks scrutiny, with powerful lobbyists and a regressive impact on poor people [(00:47:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2875s). - The industry's influence and lack of regulation are not adequately addressed by major news outlets, such as [[The New York Times | the New York Times]], [[The Wall Street Journal | Wall Street Journal]], and [[The Washington Post | Washington Post]] [(00:49:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2944s). - The industry's negative effects, including the lives it destroys and the significant portion of household income spent on it, are not thoroughly examined [(00:49:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2971s). - Young men in their 20s, including recent college graduates with limited financial resources, are often targeted by the sports gambling industry, which is a massive business [(00:49:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2994s). - The recruitment of athletes to promote the brand identity of individual companies is a significant aspect of the industry [(00:50:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3008s). - The gaming industry is enormous, comparable in size to the Hollywood industry, but remains largely uncovered by the media [(00:50:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3018s). - The speaker has a history of questioning assumptions and challenging the status quo, having faced backlash for their coverage of the gaming industry and their observations about Donald Trump's potential to win the presidency [(00:49:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=2955s). - In 2011, the speaker saw [[Donald Trump]] speak at [[Conservative Political Action Conference | CPAC]] and recognized his potential to win, later facing criticism in 2016 for their observations about Trump's candidacy [(00:50:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3032s). - The speaker believes that Trump's message and policies should be taken seriously, even if his candidacy is not initially taken seriously [(00:51:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3069s). - Donald Trump is a complicated but also simple man who likes people who say nice things about him on television [(00:51:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3078s). - Trump called the individual to [[Trump Tower]] after they said nice things about him on television, and they discussed politics consistently from 2011 to 2015 [(00:51:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3083s). - The individual had access to Trump because they took him seriously as a potential presidential candidate, unlike many others in the networks who mocked the idea of him winning [(00:51:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3104s). ## How Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama Took Out Biden [(00:51:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3114s) - [[Joe Biden]] initially intended to run for re-election but ultimately decided not to, reportedly due to grim and inarguable data presented to him, as well as pressure from key figures in the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] Party [(00:51:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3118s). - [[Nancy Pelosi]] played a crucial role in convincing Biden to step down, using her knowledge of the party's pressure points and rallying support from governors, members of [[United States Congress | Congress]], and donors to withdraw their backing for his campaign [(00:52:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3155s). - The loss of financial support was a significant factor in Biden's decision, as he relied heavily on large donations and was not successful in raising small-dollar donations [(00:53:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3182s). - Pelosi's message to Biden was that he would have no money, almost no support, and would be blamed for losing to [[Donald Trump]] if he stayed in the race, but could salvage his reputation by stepping down [(00:53:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3212s). - [[Barack Obama]] was involved in strategizing with Pelosi and other party leaders to design a process to replace Biden and maximize the party's chances of winning, while minimizing the risk of Biden becoming upset [(00:54:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3241s). - There is reportedly a deep-seated animosity between Biden and Obama, stemming from Obama's decision to support [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016 and his perceived lack of support for Biden's presidential ambitions [(00:54:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3279s). - Obama was careful not to be seen as publicly engineering Biden's exit, but worked behind the scenes to apply pressure and ensure a smooth transition to a new nominee [(00:55:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3331s). - The decision-making process within the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] Party is driven by pragmatism and a focus on winning, rather than personal loyalty or sentiment [(00:55:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3350s). - There appears to be some affection between [[Bill Clinton]] and [[Joe Biden]], and it's speculated that [[Nancy Pelosi]] felt bad for Biden, showing some humanity in the situation, but ultimately, the goal was to switch from zero chance of winning to a decent chance, leaving little room for sentimentality [(00:56:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3361s). - Prior to June of this year, there were no major news outlets reporting that Joe Biden would lose, despite some stories covering his fundraising problems, issues in certain states, and difficulties with topics like [[Israel]] and immigration [(00:57:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3422s). - The coverage of Biden from February onward was quite negative, which contributed to his decision to agree to a debate, as the press turned on him to an extent, trying to drive him out of the race [(00:58:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3486s). - A product called Sosa, which combines antihistamine with a syrup of herbs and honey, is designed to help with sleep and has received positive reviews, with its users reportedly waking up feeling refreshed and revitalized [(00:58:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3506s). - There is uncertainty surrounding the underlying illness that Joe Biden suffers from, with no clear information available, which is seen as unusual given the importance of the commander-in-chief's health, especially during a time when the nation is on the cusp of nuclear war [(00:59:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3541s). - The press has been criticized for not demanding more information about Biden's health, and his doctor, a Parkinson specialist, was not made available to answer questions, which is seen as part of a larger conspiracy [(00:59:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3561s). - The lack of access to the president's doctor and the press's failure to demand information about the president's health is concerning and should have been an alarm bell [(00:59:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3585s). - The press's reluctance to show any weakness in the president's health is likely due to their fear of being accused of helping Trump win [(01:00:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3637s). - The press has always been liberal and sympathetic to [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]], but their current posture of total denial and deception is a new development [(01:00:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3645s). - People on the left have legitimate grievances about Trump's actions, which are antithetical to [[United States | American]] values, but the press's focus on the negative aspects of Trump disregards the grievances of the other side [(01:01:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3680s). - The press's decision to prioritize certain stories, such as Stormy Daniels and documents at [[Mar-a-Lago]], over others, like [[Arab Americans | Americans]] being killed by people in the country illegally, is a problem [(01:02:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3731s). - The press's coverage of Trump is not just biased, but also dishonest, and they often report false information, such as saying it's sunny when it's raining [(01:01:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3706s). - The press's emotional [[Trump derangement syndrome]] and liberal media bias have led them to prioritize certain stories over others and to report dishonestly [(01:01:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3716s). ## Corporate Media’s Self-Destruction and the Future of News [(01:02:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3739s) - The media industry is in crisis, with many legacy players struggling to adapt to digital changes, but there will always be a demand for news, and some companies are finding ways to survive digitally [(01:02:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3763s). - **The** **New York** **Times** has managed to adapt and find new revenue streams, such as creating whole and recipes, but other companies like [[CBS]], [[NBC]], and [[CNN]] have weaker futures and will need to adapt late in the game to digital sales and different revenue models [(01:03:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3795s). - The media's role is to inform the public about factual things, and someone needs to fill this role, whether it's legacy companies that adapt or new companies that focus on quality content and find new business models [(01:03:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3828s). - The speaker worked at [[American Broadcasting Company | ABC]] from 1987 to 2007, a total of 20 years, and never thought they would be part of independent media, but now values the freedom to do what they think is right without the downsides of being in a large institution [(01:04:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3890s). - The speaker recalls instances where they couldn't do what they thought was right while working at ABC, such as filing [[Freedom of Information Act (United States) | Freedom of Information Act]] requests that might annoy people they were trying to book as guests [(01:05:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3929s). - The speaker notes that there were often competing interests within the organization, with the desire to book a guest taking priority over investigative reporting [(01:05:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3947s). - The media industry has a tradeoff between creativity and quality production, with many people involved in the process at major networks, making it difficult to be super creative [(01:06:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=3979s). - Demanding to think for oneself in the media industry can lead to severe punishment, and there has been a systematic cleansing of people who challenge the status quo, regardless of their political affiliation [(01:06:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4000s). - People who challenge the left are more susceptible to being punished for thinking differently, but there are exceptions, such as [[Rachel Maddow]], who has the power and autonomy to pursue stories and criticize her own network [(01:07:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4034s). - Most people in the media industry do not want to cross the orthodoxy or their corporate bosses, and are not different from those working in other industries, but journalists have a responsibility to tell the truth and serve the public interest [(01:07:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4063s). - The media industry is protected by the [[First Amendment to the United States Constitution | First Amendment]], and a free press is at the center of the enterprise, allowing journalists to hold those in power accountable, including liberal [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] [(01:08:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4093s). - The media landscape may change in the next 5-10 years, with a potential market for quality content that appeals to people across the ideological spectrum, rather than just catering to the hard left or right [(01:08:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4103s). - A new platform is being developed that aims to bring people together from different backgrounds and ideologies to discuss the country in a respectful and constructive way, using a model of "peace, love, and understanding" [(01:09:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4157s). - A platform is being discussed that allows for two-way communication, enabling users to interact with people they want to hear from, including experts, athletes, and musicians, with features such as live video, sponsorships, and Super Fan payments [(01:09:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4199s). - The platform's business model is not limited to politics, as it plans to expand to other areas like sports and music, with the goal of hosting two-way conversations [(01:09:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4195s). - The platform aims to bring together people with different views, including those with pro-Trump and [[Kamala Harris | pro-Harris]] opinions, to facilitate discussions and debates [(01:09:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4179s). - The idea is to provide a space where all voices can be heard, allowing users to engage with people they may not normally interact with, and to learn from those with differing opinions [(01:10:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4235s). - The platform's approach is centered around the concept of "all voices Under One Roof," which is seen as a unique aspect of the platform, particularly in the context of politics [(01:10:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4236s). ## Black Men Are Voting for Trump [(01:10:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4243s) - Many people, including young black men, are supporting Trump, and this trend is observed on social media and in personal experiences, which could lead to Trump breaking the record for support from black men if the anecdotal evidence is close to true [(01:10:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4244s). - Trump's appeal to some black men may be due to his perceived macho image and the fact that he has been persecuted, which resonates with those who feel the legal system is unfair [(01:11:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4310s). - The failure of liberals to improve life for poor kids in cities is seen as a massive scandal, and Trump's promises of criminal justice reform, fixing schools, and creating economic opportunities may be attractive to some black men [(01:12:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4342s). - Trump has actually implemented criminal justice reform, which may be a factor in his appeal to some black men [(01:12:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4366s). - The [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] party's performance in helping young black men is seen as poor, and defending this performance would be challenging even for a partisan Democrat [(01:13:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4387s). - Black voters, including black men, are a crucial part of the Democratic party's coalition and moral authority, and a shift in their support to Trump would be significant [(01:13:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4399s). - The Democratic party's narrative about being the party that helps black people would be challenged if black men were to support Trump, which could be mind-blowing for Democrats [(01:13:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4413s). - Some sources believe that [[Kamala Harris]] may lose the election, and her decision to spend time courting black men at the end of the campaign is seen as a response to this potential problem [(01:13:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4436s). - A Democratic presidential candidate is spending time recording messages for black men with 20 days to go before the election, which is unusual given the widespread perception of [[Donald Trump]] as a racist [(01:14:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4461s). - A black woman who supports Trump was confronted by an older black gentleman who supports Kamala Harris, and she defended her support by pointing out that [[Joe Biden]] also has a questionable past regarding racism [(01:14:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4481s). - The woman argued that she won't decide who to vote for based on allegations of who is the bigger racist, and instead will focus on other issues [(01:15:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4510s). - Despite his perceived racist rhetoric, Donald Trump increased his share of the black vote and [[Hispanic]] vote in the previous election [(01:15:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4521s). - Some Hispanic voters who came to the US legally may not support more open border policies and may have benefited from the 1986 amnesty, which could influence their vote [(01:15:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4536s). - The election is expected to be close, but it's possible that one candidate could win all seven battleground states, leading to an [[Electoral college | electoral college]] landslide [(01:16:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4565s). - The dynamics of the election will vary from state to state, but it's possible that either Trump or his opponent could win all seven battleground states [(01:16:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4588s). ## Why Is Our Voting System So Complicated? [(01:16:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4592s) - The US voting system is decentralized and messy, with elections not being called within a week of [[Election day | election day]] if the results are close, which may lead to litigation and second-guessing [(01:16:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4592s). - The [[United States | American]] system gives significant differences to counties to figure out how they want to run elections, which raises equal protection questions, as seen in [[Florida]] in 2000 [(01:17:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4623s). - Different counties and states have varying rules for counting ballots, such as when to start counting different types of ballots and how to handle errors in ballots [(01:17:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4649s). - These differences in rules can lead to questions about fairness to voters, such as whether it is fair to count a ballot with an error in one county but not in another [(01:17:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4657s). - Even if the rules are not different, the application of the rules can vary between counties, such as stopping counting at midnight in one county but continuing in another [(01:18:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4681s). - The lack of uniform rules can lead to chain of custody questions and disputes over the counting process [(01:18:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4690s). - The decentralized and messy nature of the US voting system means that election results may not be known for a significant period, potentially longer than a week [(01:18:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4714s). - Litigation can prolong the process, and both [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] and [[Republican Party (United States) | Republicans]] are prepared to engage in litigation, as seen in the 2000 and 2020 elections [(01:18:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4721s). ## Who’s Winning the Swing States? [(01:18:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4738s) - The seven swing states that will be litigated are [[Michigan]], [[Pennsylvania]], [[Wisconsin]], [[Georgia (U.S. state) | Georgia]], [[North Carolina]], [[Arizona]], and [[Nevada]], with the latter being referred to as the Silver State or the state where [[Las Vegas]] is, due to a mental block in pronouncing its name correctly [(01:18:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4739s). - The three [[Great Lakes | Great Lake]] States are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin [(01:19:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4750s). - The four [[Sun Belt | Sunbelt]] states are Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada [(01:19:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4755s). - There is a tendency for people in Nevada to be judgy about the pronunciation of the state's name, which has led to a mental block in pronouncing it correctly [(01:19:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4775s). - Alternative ways to refer to Nevada include the Silver State, the state where Las Vegas is, or referencing notable locations such as [[Reno, Nevada | Reno]] or Harry Reid's old state [(01:19:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4784s). ## Who’s Winning Nevada? [(01:19:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4794s) - [[Nevada]] is considered the hardest state to predict in the presidential election, with both Trump's and Harris's teams thinking they can win it [(01:19:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4798s). - The state has a strong presence of unions, which could benefit [[Kamala Harris | Harris]], particularly [[UNITE HERE | Unite Here]] and the [[Casino]] workers unions [(01:21:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4891s). - The economy, inflation, and housing market in Nevada are struggling, which could work in Trump's favor [(01:20:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4827s). - Trump has a strong presence in [[Clark County, Nevada | Clark County]] and is likely to win [[Elko County, Nevada | Elko County]], but the changing demographics in Clark County, particularly the growing [[Hispanic]] population, could impact the outcome [(01:20:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4839s). - Harris's Western background may not be an advantage in Nevada, as people in the state often have a negative perception of Californians [(01:21:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4860s). - Despite being considered Harris's best state among the seven, there are reasons to believe Trump could still win Nevada [(01:21:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4870s). - The gap between union leadership and the rank-and-file members in [[Nevada]] is smaller, which could help Harris perform well among union voters [(01:21:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4886s). - The ghost of [[Harry Reid]], a former Nevada senator, is still an influential factor in the state's politics [(01:20:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4808s). - Abortion is also a key issue in Nevada, which could impact the election outcome [(01:20:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4808s). ## Who’s Winning Arizona? [(01:21:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4900s) - [[Arizona]] is likely Donald Trump's best chance among the seven states in question, but the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate has a significant financial advantage, having raised over $1 billion since entering the race, which is more than Trump has raised for his entire campaign [(01:22:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4945s). - The Democratic candidate's financial advantage is considerable, with a large amount of money coming from grassroots donors and rich people, which is a mystery in politics as Democrats have consistently been better at raising big money online compared to [[Republican Party (United States) | Republicans]] [(01:23:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=4986s). - The Democratic Party's ability to raise money from small-dollar donors is a significant advantage, as it allows for continued giving and can be spent on various campaign activities such as TV ads, digital ads, field organizers, and get-out-the-vote operations [(01:25:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5101s). - The Democratic candidate's team, led by campaign manager [[Jen O'Malley Dillon]], is well-organized and effective in turning out voters, with a strong operation for early voting, voting by mail, and getting people to the polls on [[Election day | Election Day]] [(01:25:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5135s). - Despite the financial disadvantage, it is believed that Trump still has enough money to be competitive, and the Democratic candidate's financial advantage may not be decisive [(01:24:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5057s). - Trump has been outraised in all three categories of money: small dollars, bundlers, and super PAC checks, with the biggest discrepancy being in small-dollar donations [(01:24:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5092s). - The [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate's financial advantage allows for more spending on campaign activities, including TV ads, digital ads, field organizers, offices, get-out-the-vote operations, lawn signs, and surrogate travel [(01:25:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5105s). - Trump is believed to have an advantage in [[Arizona]], which is considered a crucial state in the election [(01:25:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5150s). ## Who’s Winning Georgia? [(01:25:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5155s) - Trump is favored to win in [[Georgia (U.S. state) | Georgia]], which would likely be the fifth or sixth state won by his opponent if she is doing well in other states, indicating she would win the [[Great Lakes | Great Lake]] States and probably the Silver State as well [(01:26:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5166s). - Georgia is probably Trump's third-best state among the seven being discussed, and he is considered the favorite to win there by both the speaker's sources and Democratic sources [(01:26:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5198s). - A key factor in [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] politics in southern states is increasing the percentage of the vote that comes from black voters, which could help Trump's opponent win if she can get her numbers back up to typical Democratic levels [(01:26:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5206s). - Trump is performing well with young black men in Georgia, and his typical strategy of running up votes in exurbs and rural areas may also contribute to his success in the state [(01:27:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5221s). - All seven states being discussed have a pro-choice energy, with ballot measures in the two Western states that could help Trump's opponent, but in Georgia, the Atlanta metro area is very pro-choice, which could benefit her if she can hold her own with black voters and suburban women [(01:27:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5233s). - Trump's opponent may need to combine a strong black vote with support from suburban voters, particularly women, in order to win in Georgia [(01:27:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5252s). ## Who’s Winning North Carolina? [(01:27:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5256s) - [[North Carolina]] is considered a crucial state in the election, with Trump being the favorite to win, but the outcome is uncertain due to various factors [(01:27:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5257s). - The vice president and her aides have been optimistic about winning North Carolina, viewing it as a potential replacement for [[Pennsylvania]] if they lose that state [(01:27:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5265s). - A trusted [[Republican Party (United States) | Republican]] source believes that Trump will not lose North Carolina, but the impact of the storm and the governor's race are variables that could affect the outcome [(01:27:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5279s). - Despite the uncertainty, the vice president has invested significant time in North Carolina and is likely to continue doing so as a hedge against losing Pennsylvania [(01:28:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5294s). - If the election comes down to a swap, with Trump winning the three [[Sun Belt]] states and Pennsylvania, and the vice president winning North Carolina, [[Wisconsin]], and [[Michigan]], the vice president would still lose due to Pennsylvania having more electoral votes [(01:28:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5302s). - In this scenario, the vice president would need to win one of the other three Sun Belt states, making North Carolina a crucial state to win, with the same number of electoral votes as [[Georgia (U.S. state) | Georgia]] [(01:28:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5325s). ## Who’s Winning Wisconsin? [(01:28:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5334s) - [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] are optimistic about winning Wisconsin, while [[Republican Party (United States) | Republicans]] believe it will ultimately be won by Trump [(01:28:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5334s). - Wisconsin was initially considered one of the best states for the Democrats, but they have started to slip in the polls over the last couple of weeks, making it a close state [(01:29:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5342s). - Trump's convention in [[Wisconsin]] and the state's rural vote, as well as its stance on social issues, particularly being less pro-choice, may work in his favor [(01:29:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5350s). - Despite the state's closeness, the combination of sources suggests [[Kamala Harris | Harris]] is a slight favorite, but if Trump wins the rest of the states, he will likely win Wisconsin [(01:29:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5363s). - The selection of [[Tim Kaine]] as a running mate was intended to shore up support in states like Wisconsin, but running mates generally do not make a significant difference in the outcome [(01:29:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5370s). - Running mates typically do not have a substantial impact on the election, as long as they are not highly controversial [(01:29:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5376s). ## Who’s Winning Michigan? [(01:29:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5379s) - When choosing a presidential candidate, the public's perception of readiness is a marginal factor, leaving [[Michigan]] as a crucial state to consider [(01:29:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5379s). - Michigan is one of the bluest states among the seven being discussed, but the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] candidate has issues with certain demographics, including labor, black men, union members, [[Arab Americans]], and [[Islam in the United States | Muslim Americans]] [(01:29:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5384s). - The candidate has only recently started addressing these issues in Michigan, doing things like visiting union halls, black barber shops, and attempting to make peace with Arab American and [[United States | Muslim American]] communities as demanded by local Democrats [(01:30:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5403s). - Visiting these locations and engaging with these communities is seen as necessary for the candidate to gain support in Michigan [(01:30:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5412s). - Winning Michigan is considered a must-win for the Democratic candidate, but not as crucial for Trump [(01:30:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5424s). ## Who’s Winning Pennsylvania? [(01:30:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5432s) - [[Pennsylvania]] is considered a crucial state in the election, with the winner likely to have an advantage in the [[Electoral college | electoral college]], although it's possible for either candidate to win without it [(01:30:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5440s). - Trump is currently ahead in Pennsylvania, albeit within the margin of error, and has been consistently leading for a while [(01:31:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5482s). - Hillary Clinton's changing position on fracking was essential for her campaign in Pennsylvania, as being against it would have been a significant liability [(01:31:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5495s). - Trump is showing strength in Pennsylvania with white working-class voters, older voters, black men, and [[Hispanic]] suburbs around [[Philadelphia]] [(01:32:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5529s). - The state's [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] governor and senators, as well as its history of voting for Democrats in statewide offices, make it more of a blue state than a red state [(01:31:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5518s). - Trump won Pennsylvania once and lost it once, but his current strength in the state is notable [(01:32:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5524s). - The decision to replace [[Joe Biden]] with [[Kamala Harris]] on the ticket may have been a downgrade for the Democrats in [[Pennsylvania]], given Biden's personal connection to the state [(01:32:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5541s). - Harris's liberal views, both culturally and economically, may not resonate with Pennsylvania voters, who tend to be more moderate [(01:32:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5578s). - Harris has not done enough to convince voters that she is not as liberal as they think, which could be a liability in the state [(01:33:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5615s). ## Here Is What the Private Polls Are Saying [(01:34:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5640s) - Private polls may show [[Donald Trump]] performing two points stronger than in public polls in some states, due to differences in polling methods and budgets [(01:34:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5660s). - Public polls are often done on a lower budget, which can lead to less accurate results, particularly in identifying likely voters [(01:34:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5670s). - To save time and money, public polls may overrepresent better-educated and wealthier [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democrats]] who are more likely to participate in surveys, which can skew the results [(01:35:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5710s). - This demographic is more likely to vote for candidates like [[Kamala Harris]] rather than Trump, which can contribute to the difference between public and private polling results [(01:35:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5742s). - Private polls, which are more expensive and aim for accuracy, may show different results than public polls, which prioritize speed and low costs [(01:35:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5755s). - The 2020 presidential campaign of Kamala Harris raised over a billion dollars, with some of that money going to consultants who have become wealthy from their work [(01:36:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5775s). - The culture of campaign consulting has changed, with consultants now making more money than in the past, partly due to changes initiated by the Bush campaign and continued by other campaigns [(01:36:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5807s). - The Bush campaign reduced the percentage of the budget that ad makers received, and the [[Hillary Clinton]] campaign, under [[John Podesta]], implemented cost-control measures such as requiring staff to take the bus instead of the train or plane [(01:37:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5820s). - The campaign's money is not being wasted on spending or salaries, and consultants, particularly ad buyers and pollsters, do not make as much as they used to, but they still make a lot and spend a significant amount on polls, resulting in more accurate polls [(01:37:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5842s). - A billion dollars is being spent on one side of one race in the final months, but consultants are not getting rich off of it, unlike in the past when consultants were millionaires with their own planes and vacation houses [(01:37:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5870s). - The culture of how much consultants get paid has changed, and most consultants are not as wealthy as they used to be [(01:38:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5889s). - The shuffling of parties, such as [[Dick Cheney]] and his daughter Liz campaigning for [[Kamala Harris]], is bewildering, but it is believed that the Cheneys' actions are driven by their belief in Donald Trump's unfitness for the presidency, rather than personal gain or a desire for jobs [(01:38:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5902s). - The Cheneys' decision to support Harris is likely due to their concerns about Trump's character, particularly after January 6 and related events, which they believe make him unfit for the job [(01:39:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5952s). - It is also noted that some people, such as [[Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Bobby Kennedy]], are campaigning for Trump, highlighting the shifting allegiances and unexpected endorsements in the current political landscape [(01:38:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5913s). ## War and NATO [(01:39:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5961s) - The dominant media has a blind spot regarding America's bipartisan disdain for the "forever Wars," which is shared by individuals from [[Bernie Sanders]] to [[Donald Trump]] [(01:39:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=5985s). - Some individuals believe that Trump makes the planet less safe by not being supportive of [[Ukraine]] and not challenging [[Vladimir Putin | Putin]] aggressively, which motivates their opposition to him [(01:40:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6006s). - These individuals have a different point of view on how to keep the planet and the country safe, and it's not necessarily driven by a desire for war or profit from the military-industrial complex [(01:40:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6034s). - Both January 6 and war are concerns for these individuals, but war is likely the overwhelming concern, as they believe Trump challenges the international order that has been effective in keeping the world safe [(01:40:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6048s). - Some people think that these individuals have high motives but are also warmongers, with their power rooted in planning wars, which makes them feel "Godlike" [(01:41:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6074s). - There is disagreement about whether these individuals are warmongers, with some arguing that they don't love war or profit from the military-industrial complex, but rather have a different conception of how to keep the country safe [(01:41:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6106s). - These individuals' view of how to keep the country safe is to engage in endless wars, which is a different perspective from [[Donald Trump]] and many [[Arab Americans | Americans]] [(01:42:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6128s). - The motivations of these individuals are not driven by greed or self-interest, but rather by hubris, which is a scarier prospect [(01:42:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6175s). - A rational person, informed by humility, understands the limits of their power and the unpredictability of the consequences of their actions, unlike many in DC who claim to know exactly what will happen after making a big decision [(01:43:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6193s). - The concept of "warmonger" is defined as someone who relishes sending the US to war, profits from it, or is insufficiently concerned about the welfare of the country, but a more accurate term would describe someone who believes managing the world is the most important thing they do and is convinced they're doing a good job [(01:43:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6226s). - This mindset is deeply offensive because it disregards the limits of human foresight and is a massive problem, as history has shown [(01:44:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6263s). - Trump does not hate [[NATO]], but rather wants to reform it to make it fair to [[United States | American]] taxpayers and align its mission with US security needs [(01:44:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6277s). - Some people, however, believe that NATO should be destroyed, as it eliminates the sovereignty of participating countries and allows foreign troops on their soil [(01:44:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6287s). - Despite its flaws, NATO is still the best arrangement for maximizing safety, but it would be better if it were reformed [(01:45:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6320s). - Western Europe's economy is struggling, but it will not disappear, and it would be better if countries like [[Finland]] had their own robust armies and navies instead of relying on NATO [(01:45:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6332s). - Regional cooperation between countries, such as the Nordic countries, could be a better alternative to a continent-wide force like NATO [(01:46:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6377s). - NATO is not a continent-wide force, but rather an extension of a far-away empire [(01:46:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6394s). - The presence of foreign troops on a country's soil for an extended period can have a negative impact on the country's pride and sense of independence, as seen in countries like [[Japan]] and [[South Korea]] [(01:46:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6398s). - The effect of having foreign troops on a country's soil can lead to the elimination of national pride and a sense of being an "adult country" [(01:47:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6435s). - Despite the negative consequences, military cooperation with countries like Japan, South Korea, [[Australia]], and [[NATO]] is necessary to deal with serious threats in the world, such as [[North Korea]], [[Russia]], and [[China]] [(01:47:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6455s). - Geographically, it is not possible for the [[United States]] to defend and deter threats from the continental United States alone, making military cooperation with other countries a requirement [(01:47:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6479s). - One of the powers of Trump's idea is that if other countries paid more for their defense and had more ownership, it would be less infantilizing and they would be more full partners [(01:48:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6507s). - The challenge of nuclear weapons is also a factor, as countries like Japan and South Korea may want to develop their own nuclear weapons if they are not partnered with the United States [(01:48:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6522s). - Japan's past as a martial power is still a concern for other countries, particularly China and [[South Korea]], and the United States' military presence has effectively restrained [[Japan]] and allowed it to become part of the community of nations [(01:49:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6558s). - The relationship between Japan and South Korea has strengthened in recent years, in part because Japan does not have a threatening military, and this is one of the successes of Biden's foreign policy [(01:49:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6576s). - The [[Japanese language | Japanese]] people are known for being "elaborately nice" and have undergone a significant transformation in one generation, but they could potentially benefit from a bit more "fierceness" in the current generation [(01:49:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6596s). - The society has been significantly impacted by being completely defanged in a way that has caused harm, although this was partially necessary due to the aftermath of the war and strong feelings in [[China]] and South Korea that still persist to this day [(01:50:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6604s). ## RFK Jr. Being Anti-Establishment [(01:50:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6615s) - [[Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Bobby Kennedy Jr.]] is a mercurial man who is anti-establishment and believes in profound change in the current military situation, food safety, and foreign wars, which is why he supports Trump [(01:50:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6625s). - Kennedy is also angry at the [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] party for not allowing him to run for the nomination fairly and for personally attacking him, which contributed to his decision to support Trump [(01:50:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6657s). - Trump offered Kennedy a better deal, which included a significant role, but Kennedy's support for Trump is also driven by strong ideological ties [(01:51:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6668s). - Kennedy's announcement speech was one of the best and most important speeches of the last five years by any politician, but he lacks the discipline to stay focused on core issues [(01:51:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6698s). - The Democratic party did not consider talking to Kennedy, despite his real constituency and energetic personality, and instead decided to brand him as a joke [(01:52:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6725s). - The party's decision not to take Kennedy seriously was a deliberate choice, and they made it easy for him to be destroyed due to his past and present actions [(01:52:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6778s). - The real sin in the Democratic party is trying to bring any kind of change, being anti-establishment, or being populist, as seen in the treatment of [[Bernie Sanders]] [(01:53:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6797s). - The party establishment will always do what it does to maintain power, whether it's an incumbent like [[Joe Biden]] or a quasi-incumbent like [[Hillary Clinton]] [(01:53:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6821s). ## Who Is Running the Country Right Now? [(01:53:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6828s) - The current administration of the country is led by Joe Biden, the [[White House]] Chief of Staff, and senior advisers to the president, including [[Antony Blinken | Tony Blinken]] and [[Jake Sullivan]] [(01:53:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6836s). - The White House Chief of Staff plays a crucial role in managing Joe Biden's time, recognizing when he is capable of making decisions and when he is not, to minimize the risk of a big decision being made at an inopportune time [(01:54:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6853s). - A few close personal aides to the president, who are not famous, also help determine when to involve him in important matters and when to avoid it [(01:54:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6869s). - Despite concerns about Joe Biden's ability to make decisions, the number of times he has displayed an inability to do so is relatively small, estimated to be around 25 instances [(01:54:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6893s). - The fact that the administration has been able to function despite these challenges is a testament to the effectiveness of the management and the degree to which the situation is well-managed [(01:55:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6903s). ## Trump Derangement Syndrome Will Be the Biggest Mental Health Crisis in American History [(01:55:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6911s) - If [[Donald Trump]] wins the presidential election, it will lead to the greatest mental health crisis in [[United States | American]] history, with tens of millions of people questioning their connection to the nation, other human beings, and their future, requiring enormous access to mental health professionals [(01:55:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6937s). - The crisis will lead to trauma in the workplace, alcoholism, broken marriages, and other negative consequences, as many people believe Trump is the worst person possible to be president [(01:56:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=6974s). - The mental health crisis will be sustained and unprecedented, and the country is not ready for it, with potential manifestations including violence, workplace fights, and protests that may turn violent [(01:56:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7016s). - The crisis will be more about a failure to understand how Trump's victory could happen, rather than just anger, and will be a traumatic event that will be difficult for even mentally healthy people to process [(01:57:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7041s). - The crisis is rooted in the belief that Trump's supporters are a sign of fundamental evil at the heart of fellow citizens and the nation [(01:58:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7085s). - It is hoped that Trump will handle the situation well, recognizing his responsibility and self-interest, and will take steps to minimize the mental health crisis, such as choosing his words and cabinet appointments carefully, and pursuing a legislative agenda that addresses the crisis [(01:58:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7102s). ## What Happens If Trump Loses? [(01:58:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7129s) - If [[Donald Trump]] loses the election, the outcome will depend on how he loses and whether his supporters perceive any wrongdoing in the casting and counting of ballots in the seven key states, making it difficult for [[Kamala Harris]] to win by a large enough margin to avoid controversy [(01:58:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7130s). - Efforts in the states to prepare for potential disputes have been disappointing, and it's crucial for the electoral process to be transparent and clear about any irregularities to maintain trust [(01:59:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7166s). - If Trump doesn't challenge the results, the negative impact of Harris' win on the psychology of his supporters might be less severe, but there will still be skepticism about the election's fairness due to factors like the media's perceived bias and the replacement of [[Joe Biden]] with Harris [(01:59:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7183s). - The outcome's clarity and Trump's attitude will play a significant role in determining the reaction to the results, as well as the governors of the states, who need to be transparent about any irregularities [(02:00:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7229s). - If Harris is gracious in her transition, inaugural address, and legislative agenda, it could help mitigate the situation, but a [[Republican Party (United States) | Republican]] [[United States Senate | Senate]] might hinder her ability to nominate and confirm left-leaning officials [(02:01:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7263s). - A Republican Senate, [[Democratic Party (United States) | Democratic]] House, and Democratic president could lead to a situation where the Senate tries to block Harris' far-left policies, making it challenging for her to nominate and confirm officials acceptable to the left [(02:01:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7287s). - The difficulty in getting nominees confirmed by the Senate could lead to acting officials being in place for an extended period, which is a limited and dysfunctional situation [(02:02:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7328s). - The background checks and confirmation process might hinder Harris' ability to get her people in place, even if she emerges from the election with a honeymoon period [(02:02:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7348s). - A Republican Senate is unlikely to confirm nominees demanded by progressive Democrats like [[Elizabeth Warren]], [[Bernie Sanders]], and [[Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | AOC]], making it challenging for [[Kamala Harris | Harris]] to form a government [(02:02:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7372s). - There is a possibility of civil conflict in the [[United States]], but it is more likely to occur at the state level, where governors have a role in minimizing violence and policing peaceful protests while protecting the [[First Amendment to the United States Constitution | First Amendment]] [(02:03:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7384s). - The chances of violence are minimized if the losing presidential candidate makes it clear they do not want it to happen and if governors are vigilant in devising plans to balance public safety with the First Amendment [(02:03:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7417s). - The potential for violence exists regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both sides are capable of it [(02:03:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7410s). - [[Mark Halperin]] is grateful to still be a powerful voice in media and acknowledges that many people are concerned about what has happened to him, with some mutual friends expressing worry [(02:03:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7437s). - Halperin attributes his departure from his previous role to corruption, stating that it was too corrupt for him and he had to leave [(02:04:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7490s). - The [[YouTube]] show is being suppressed by [[Google]], which is putting its thumb on the scale in an election year, and the best way for viewers to get around this is to subscribe to the channel [(02:05:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV_WDBqE8VI&t=7520s).