# The Fourth Turning Is Here — Neil Howe

## Metadata
- Author: [[PodCasts Archives - McAlvany Weekly Commentary]]
- Full Title: The Fourth Turning Is Here — Neil Howe
- Category: #podcasts
- URL: https://share.snipd.com/episode/44b0a3bb-8f5c-4338-a68b-fd24c5eb8ceb
## Highlights
- Episode AI notes
1. Generational cycles and societal progress lead to cyclical behavior and generational influence shaping society over time.
2. Political realignments in American history coincide with GDP falling, such as after 2016, accompanying crises or awakenings.
3. The seventh political realignment in the US occurred after 2016, with parties shifting constituencies, similar to FDR's time in the 1930s. ([Time 0:00:00](https://share.snipd.com/episode-takeaways/dcc10688-5998-40d6-984f-56de6d2a3a93))
- Generational Cycles and Societal Progress
Summary:
Societies obsessing about progress tend to generate cyclical behavior, leading to a generational dynamic.
Each generation, influenced by the societal goals during their coming of age, goes on to shape history in a certain direction. This creates a cycle of generational influence that aligns with the phases of the human life cycle, impacting the goals and direction in which society moves over time.
Transcript:
Speaker 1
And we just look at them all, long term or even short term economic cycles, cycles of fashion, cycles of traffic, cycles of dress, cycles of infrastructure, cycles of R&D, cycles of Fiscal spending, I mean, surrounded by cyclical behaviors that wouldn't have existed in traditional societies. One deeper part of our book, and I should say this isn't really the top line takeaway of the book, but a deeper part of the book is to try to explain why when societies become really obsessed About progress, that they actually become more likely to generate cyclical behavior. And as we posit that it gives rise to a very interesting generational dynamic. If you are a generation that comes of age thinking that this is what society needs, right? We need to go in this direction. Maybe it's more peace, more power, more wealth, more holiness, whatever it is, as you later on assume leadership roles as midlife parents and leaders, you will strive to push your society In that direction, right? People change history, which of course creates a different coming of age experience for the next generation to come along and cultivate different goals, which will have them push History in another direction. So the kind of cycle we suggest, and which is interesting because it has a very definite periodicity, is the generational cycle. It is definitely timed to the phases of life of the human life cycle. ([Time 0:08:20](https://share.snipd.com/snip/87807909-34e1-4fd1-bf36-b528f44d8068))
- Political Realignments in American History
Summary:
Political realignments in US history coincide with GDP falling, such as seen after 2016 with polarization during Trump's term.
The seventh political realignment in America is dated back to this period, with parties shifting constituencies. These realignments occur during crises or awakenings, as with FDR's time.
Realignments happen roughly every 40-45 years, accompanying generational shifts like the one seen after 2016 which may require a follow-up re-generacy like FDR's in the 1930s.
Transcript:
Speaker 1
The GDP had fallen by double digits since what it was in 1929. And I think in our most recent fourth turning, by the way, and these often coincide with what we call political realignments, particularly in US history. But I think in them fourth turning, it's really the period after 2016 with the polarization and tribal solidarity of blue zone and red zone during Trump's first term. There's no question about it. And actually, increasingly, political scientists are actually dating America's seventh political realignment to that period. We suddenly have the two parties completely shifting their constituencies. And by the way, political realignments in American history always occur either doing crises or doing awakenings. Obviously FDR also had a political realignment. But we've seen that too in the last eight years, particularly with non-color-jorking class moving to the Republican Party and educated professionals moving toward the Democratic Party. We only have realignments about once every 40, 45 years. Anyway, we've been moving through one. And I think that accompanied the first re-generacy. Now, very often, the first re-generacy dies away and we need another one during the 30s. Of course, FDR's coalition completely ran out of speed after 1936. ([Time 0:23:22](https://share.snipd.com/snip/e7bb7de5-11e8-42fe-b6bc-84e9b89fb733))